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The EnergyWire Update 10.12.2017

October 12, 2017

The IEA today said that global oil supply rose by 90,000 bpd  in September and demand growth slowed mostly due to the outages in the U S caused by the hurricanes



The EIA yesterday -in its Short Term Outlook- forecast U S oil supply in 2018 to be 9,92 mln bpd--up from previous 9.84 mln bpd forecast (Bloomberg)



The EIA yesterday said consumers will see an average increase of 12%  in their NG heating bills this winter and that NG consumption would rise by 9 % from last year (EIA)


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees the Eastern portion of the US having a winter that is near the 5 yr average with the West seeing a 7% colder winter than the 5 yr avge. The EIA sees Henry Hub NG prices averaging $3.18 this winter which is  a 5% increase from last year -they see the US as a net exporter of NG this year by 1,4 bcf (WSJ)


Weather forecasts continue to show a warmer-than-normal trend keeping the month of October on track to be one of the warmest Octobers on record across the Northeast.  Meanwhile, a weak cold front pushed into Texas this week, reducing power-related gas demand.  The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks, published by the National Weather Service, show above to much-above-normal temperatures across the United States for all areas east of the Rocky Mountains, delaying the onset of winter and keeping heating demand at bay for the time-being. (Direct Energy)


Working gas in underground storage now stands at a 4.1% deficit y-o-y and -.2% vs. the 5 year average. Look for storage to rebound as warmer than normal weather continues to strengthen short term bearish outlooks. 



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