The EnergyWire Update 10.12.2017

The IEA today said that global oil supply rose by 90,000 bpd in September and demand growth slowed mostly due to the outages in the U S caused by the hurricanes


The EIA yesterday -in its Short Term Outlook- forecast U S oil supply in 2018 to be 9,92 mln bpd--up from previous 9.84 mln bpd forecast (Bloomberg)

The EIA yesterday said consumers will see an average increase of 12% in their NG heating bills this winter and that NG consumption would rise by 9 % from last year (EIA)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees the Eastern portion of the US having a winter that is near the 5 yr average with the West seeing a 7% colder winter than the 5 yr avge. The EIA sees Henry Hub NG prices averaging $3.18 this winter which is a 5% increase from last year -they see the US as a net exporter of NG this year by 1,4 bcf (WSJ)

Weather forecasts continue to show a warmer-than-normal trend keeping the month of October on track to be one of the warmest Octobers on record across the Northeast. Meanwhile, a weak cold front pushed into Texas this week, reducing power-related gas demand. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks, published by the National Weather Service, show above to much-above-normal temperatures across the United States for all areas east of the Rocky Mountains, delaying the onset of winter and keeping heating demand at bay for the time-being. (Direct Energy)

Working gas in underground storage now stands at a 4.1% deficit y-o-y and -.2% vs. the 5 year average. Look for storage to rebound as warmer than normal weather continues to strengthen short term bearish outlooks.

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